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Thu, Oct 28, 2010 and Fri, Oct 29, 2010 | By Barry Rubin

New Turkish Government Threat Assessment: Iran and Revolutionary Islamists are Great

One of the most important–perhaps the most important–indicator of Turkish government foreign policy is the National Security Council (NSC) threat assessment. The well-intended EU demand that Turkey, as a sign of its democracy, break the armed force’s power over the NSC. This happened, though whether it is in the long-term interest of Turkey’s democracy is still an open question.

When the army was in command, and Turkey had a generally pro-Western, secular government, the NSC listed as major threat to the country’s future both Iran and revolutionary Islamist movements. But now that these alliances have been reversed, a new version has just been produced, with Iran and Islamists (the current regime loves Hamas and Hizballah) omitted.

The Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK) is still listed and friction with Greece over borders in the Aegean Sea is mentioned as a challenge.

Russia, Iraq and Greece are also dropped. The draft will be approved in the next few days by the full NSC.
Yet, according to the Turkish media, the report goes far beyond just dropping enemies. Iran, along with the other four countries, is officially listed as allies with whom Turkey has a “shared vision.”

It’s nice that Turkey is getting along with Russia, Iraq, and Greece. But the official listing of Iran as a Turkish ally should give pause to Western policymakers, at least if they actually paid attention to such things.

Perhaps in some future report, the way things are going, the United States and Israel will be listed as the new threats, unless the current government loses next year’s election.

Turkish Regime Declares: Israel Is The Only Country It Views As A Threat

Only hours ago I wrote about the Turkish regime’s decision, in its official main strategy document, to drop revolutionary Islamism or Iran as threats–because they are now its allies–in the main NSC document. It was only a matter of time, I added, before they declared Israel or even the United States as threats.

It turns out that the document does in fact define Israel as the only country threatening Turkey, saying it does so by causing instability in the region and might lead countries to engage in an arms race. No, according to the regime, Iran doesn’t cause instability in the region nor, by seeking nuclear weapons, is it possibly leading toward an arms race.

So is this regime in Turkey, as it also violates the sanctions on Iran and subverts other American policies, still a U.S. ally? Getting this Islamist regime out of power, through the electoral process, should be a major priority of U.S. strategy. Not doing so helps this anti-American government stay in power.