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Mon, June 17, 2013

This study was first published in Hebrew by The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center. This is the updated English version and will be published in three parts. You can read part one here and part two here.

Cartoon lampooning the Hezbollah logo: Bashar Assad is in one of the pans of the scales and “occupied Palestine” is in the other. The text reads “May you be blessed, Bashar!” i.e., the support Hezbollah gives Syria comes at the expense of the campaign for the “liberation of occupied Palestine” (Al-Mustaqbal, May 1, 2013).

The ongoing Syrian civil war and Hezbollah’s being drawn into it clearly radiate into the internal Lebanese arena. As far as Hezbollah and its opponents are concerned, weighed in the balance are not only the survival of the Syrian regime but Lebanese political and social equilibrium as well as Hezbollah’s position of superiority in Lebanon. While Hezbollah is concerned that the fall of the Syrian regime will harm its dominance in Lebanon, its opponents regard the weakening of the Syrian regime as an opportunity to change the inter-sectarian relationships imposed on Lebanon by the Syrian takeover at the end of the civil war and the founding of the “Syrian order.”

Being drawn into the Syrian civil war forced Hezbollah to pay both a political price and a price to its image in the internal Lebanese arena and the Arab-Muslim world, and in confronting Israel:

1. Hezbollah’s position against Israel was weakened: Hezbollah was forced to transfer a large number of operatives from Lebanon to Syria, and is being drawn further into the Syrian morass. In our assessment, at least temporarily, that weakens its military preparedness against Israel to a certain degree and forces it to be cautious in its relations with Israel.
2. Hezbollah and Iran’s opponents in Lebanon and the Arab world have become bolder: Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian civil war has been met with extensive objections from the Sunnis not only in Lebanon but in the entire Arab-Muslim world and has weakened Hezbollah politically and damaged its image. That was reflected in a sermon given by Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the most important Sunni Muslim religious authority, in which he strongly attacked Hezbollah, calling it “the party of Satan” (May 31, 2013). Its critics include Lebanese President Michel Suleiman, who claimed that the fighting was liable to complicate the “resistance” in Syria and the Golan Heights and called on Hassan Nasrallah to return his forces to Lebanon (Suleiman interviewed by FTV, May 30, 2013). In the foreground to Hezbollah’s increasing involvement in the Syrian civil war there are the loss of the primacy Syria had in Lebanon and the upcoming Lebanese parliamentary elections, which by themselves have worsened sectarian tensions in Lebanon.
3. Possible harm to Hezbollah’s position among the Shi’ites in Lebanon: Its more than 100 operatives killed in Syria have still not led to significant criticism of Hezbollah by the Shi’ites in Lebanon, although the potential exists. The deeper Hezbollah is sucked into the Syrian swamp and the more deaths it incurs, the more its prestige among the Lebanese Shi’ites may weaken and criticism may increase because they did not die as part of the “resistance” campaign against Israel.

Severe Lebanese anti-Hezbollah criticism was expressed by Sa’ad al-Hariri, who leads the March 14 Camp that opposes Hezbollah (May 1, 2013). It came in response to Nasrallah’s April 30 speech in which he spoke at length about Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian civil war:

“Hassan Nasrallah is erasing Lebanon from the political map and turning Hezbollah into a alternative for the state and its constitutional, security and military institutions. [Nasrallah] alone, who heads Hezbollah, is authorized to issue fatwas about fighting the Syrians in their own country. He is the only one who is allowed to humiliate Lebanon and its army and to expose its inability to defend the Lebanese from Israel. In effect Nasrallah has declared the establishment of a Shi’ite defense army to defend Lebanese Shi’ites regionally and in the world, as if Shi’ites were his own private property. He allows himself to extend Hezbollah activity from south Lebanon to Al-Qusayr and the grave of Al-Set Zaynab. Nothing keeps him from turning Lebanon, at any moment, into a front line in the war alongside the Iranian regime in the name of defending religious sites…the country is captive in the hands of Hezbollah, and with it other Lebanese groups and sects. All that in the name of pleasing Bashar Assad and implementing fatwas originating in Tehran…Hezbollah is playing with Lebanese fate, and as its secretary general [Nasrallah] says, he is not lighting the fire in Syria alone, but threatening to bring the fire into the heart of Lebanon…”

Analysis of Hezbollah Operatives Killed in the Fighting in Syria

Cartoon of Hezbollah operatives entering Al-Qusayr to fight and exiting in coffins (Facebook page of the Syrian opposition, May 21, 2013)

In our assessment, so far more than 100 Hezbollah operatives have been killed in the fighting in Syria and several hundred have been wounded, most of them in the Al-Qusayr campaign. The estimate is based on our having located the names of 96 operatives who were killed (65 of them with pictures and in some instances with pictures of their funerals). The information was posted on various Hezbollah, Shi’ite and Lebanese websites. We also used lists of names of Hezbollah operatives killed issued by the Syrian rebels (See the Appendix for a table of names and pictures).

In our assessment, in addition to the 96 names listed so far, other Hezbollah operatives have been killed but either their names were unknown (at the time this document was issued) or their bodies were not returned to Lebanon. The number of Hezbollah operatives killed, 96, was updated on May 22, 2013, but since them, in our assessment, it has risen by several dozen.

The following conclusions can be drawn from the names and information about the 96 Hezbollah operatives killed:

1. Hezbollah is being sucked deeper into Lebanon. That can be seen by the sharp increase in the number of its operatives killed in May.
   1. With the exception of one operative killed in August 2011, in 2011 and the first half of 2012 Hezbollah incurred no losses in Syria. In the second half of 2012 seven operatives were killed, most of them in our assessment, in the region of Al-Qusayr and near the grave of Al-Set Zaynab.
   2. Hezbollah began incurring significant losses during the first months of 2013. Half of them occurred in April and May during the defense of the grave of Al-Set Zaynab and the fighting in Al-Qusayr. Before the major attack of May 19, 2013, almost 50 Hezbollah operatives had been killed in Syria.
   3. The number of deaths increased sharply with the attack on Al-Qusayr which began on May 19, 2013 and ended on June 5, 2013. During the first days of the attack we counted more than 50 Hezbollah operatives’ deaths.^[36] According to media reports, the total number of deaths during the first days of the attack was between 50 and 74. Thus as noted above, as of May 22, 2013, in our assessment the overall number of deaths was more than 100.
2. The circumstances of the deaths: Most of the Hezbollah operatives (an estimated 63) were killed during the heavy fighting around Al-Qusayr (as of May 22, 2013). In defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab 22 were killed. Two operatives were killed in an exchange of fire at other locations. As for eight others, no location for their deaths was noted but in our assessment some of them were killed in the battles at Al-Qusayr.]

*Sukaina was the daughter of Hussein Ibn Ali, the second grandson of the prophet Muhammad. She died in Damascus when she was four years old and was buried there. Her grave is the third most important site for Shi’ites in Syria. It is located in the city of Daraya in the Damascus district. In recent months there has been heavy fighting at the site between rebel forces and the Syrian army, during which the dome of the mosque of the grave of Sukaina was damaged.

Poster with the pictures of 20 Hezbollah operatives killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab near Damascus (Facebook page of the residents of south Lebanon, May 14, 2013).

3. Where the operatives came from (assuming that most of them were buried where they lived):
   1. More than half of the operatives whose names we identified came from south Lebanon (53 of the 96). Almost of a third of them came from the Beqa’a Valley (33). Only a few came from the southern suburb of Beirut and northern Lebanon. In our assessment, that is an indication of the general composition of the Hezbollah units sent to fight in Syria.
   2. Conspicuous is the large number of Shi’ite villages in south Lebanon from which the Hezbollah operatives came. It may indicate a deliberate recruitment policy aimed at preventing a buildup of deaths in any one particular town or village. On the other hand, it increases the feeling (among the Shi’ites in particular and Lebanon in general) that Hezbollah has sustained many losses in the fighting in Syria.
   3. Relatively speaking, few urban residents have beenkilled. Only 16 of the 96 came from cities: three from Beirut, nine from Baalbek, three from Nabatieh and one from Sidon.

Distribution of Hezbollah Losses according to Place of Origin

4. Announcements regarding the circumstances of the deaths: During the first stages of its involvement in Lebanon Hezbollah hid the circumstances of the deaths of its operatives and issued only laconic statements of operatives killed “while engaged in carrying out their duty to jihad.” As time passed and Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria deepened and its losses grew, among them the deaths of senior operatives, it became increasingly difficult to deny their deaths or be vague about the circumstances. Moreover, because of the many losses at Al-Qusayr in May — early June, and the information which began to be made public by sources hostile to Hezbollah, the organization was forced to issue the place and circumstances of the deaths of its operatives, although the announcements still remained laconic. Some of the information was posted on websites affiliated with Hezbollah and on Shi’ite sites and Facebook pages (See table.).
5. The deaths of senior Hezbollah operatives: Among those killed were several senior Hezbollah operatives and some sons of senior operatives:
   1. Ali Hussein Nasif was a senior Hezbollah operative, apparently killed in Al-Qusayr. He was buried in the village of Buday in the Beqa’a Valley on October 3, 2012. According to Syrian opposition sources, as he was driving in the direction of Al-Qusayr an IED exploded near his vehicle. It is unclear if he was killed in the explosion or shot.
   2. Fadi Muhammad al-Jazar was of Palestinian origin (born in Acre). He was imprisoned in Israel for 14 years and released in a prisoner exchange deal along with Dirani and Sheikh Ubeid (2004). While in jail he converted to Shi’a. After his release he joined the ranks of Hezbollah and lived in Beirut, where he was buried.
   3. Muhammad Khalil Shahrour (“Haj Sajed”), killed in Al-Qusayr, was responsible for Hezbollah security services in Baalbek.
   4. Ahmed Muhammad Badah, senior Hezbollah operative, was killed during the battles in the region the grave of Al-Set Zaynab. He was buried in the village of Beit Lif in south Lebanon.
   5. Ali Hussein Sa’ad (“Kazem”) was a senior Hezbollah operative. Haj Khalil, Nasrallah’s personal aide, attended the funeral. He was killed in a battle at the grave of Al-Set Zaynab and buried in Beirut.
   6. Hatem Hussein was killed in Al-Qusayr. He was the mukhtar of the town of Tufahiya, in south Lebanon. His son Ali Hussein was also a Hezbollah operative, killed several years ago.
   7. Hassan Feisal Shaker was the son of Feisal Shaker who was responsible for Hezbollah culture in the Beqa’a Valley Hezbollah. He was killed in Al-Qusayr and buried in name, in the Beqa’a Valley.
   8. Hussein Haitham al-Budani was killed in the region of the grave of Al-Set Zaynab. He was buried in Ali al-Nahari in the Beqa’a Valley. His father, Haitham al-Budani, is the aide of Jisham Safi al-Din, head of Hezbollah’s political council.

Appendix: List and Pictures of Hezbollah Operatives Killed in Syria^[37][38]

Hezbollah Operatives Who Died in Syria and Their Funerals^[40]

Left: Muhammad Kataya (No.1), killed in Al-Qusayr (Facebook page of the residents of south Lebanon, May 22, 2013. Middle: Saleh Ahmed al-Sabagh (No. 2), killed in Al-Qusayr (Youkal website, May 22, 2013). Right: Ali Ahmed Mazloum (No. 3), killed in Al-Qusayr (Youkal website, May 22, 2013)

Left: Hussein Muhammad Hamed (“Abu Mustafa”) (No. 4), killed in Al-Qusayr (Bint Jbeil and Youkal websites, May 22, 2013). Middle and Right: Hussein Ahmed Abu al-Hassan (“Al-Sa’id Abu Zaynab”) (No. 5), from the village of Tebnine, killed in Al-Qusayr (Bint Jbeil website, May 2013).

Left: Hussein Ahmed Mustrah (“Murtada”) (No. 6), killed in Al-Qusayr (Facebook page of the martyrs of the Islamic resistance, May 22, 2013). Middle: Muhammad al-Sabalani (No. 7), killed in Al-Qusayr (Facebook page of the residents of south Lebanon, May 22, 2013. Right: Abdallah Adnan al-Haidari (“Al-Sa’id Khybar”) (No. 8), killed in Al-Qusayr (Bint Jbeil website, May 21, 2013).

Left: Mihsen Samir Beru (No. 13) from the village of Al-Sharqia, killed in Al-Qusayr (Town of Jibshit website, May 22, 2013). Middle: Muhammad Hussein Barakat (No. 14), killed in Al-Qusayr (Youkal website, May20, 2013). Right: The funeral held in the town of Aadloun for Muhammad Hassan Sh’hadi, (No. 15), killed in Al-Qusayr (Jibshit website, May 23, 2013).

Left: Muhammad Khader Burjekali (“Karbala”) (No.16), killed in Al-Qusayr (Facebook page of the martyrs of the Islamic resistance, May 22, 2013). Middle: Muhammad Jihad Yusuf (No.18), killed in Al-Qusayr (Bint Jbeil website, May 22, 2013). Right: Khalil Nasrallah (No. 22), killed in Al-Qusayr (Facebook page of the martyrs of the Islamic resistance, May 22, 2013).

Left: Khalil Yusuf Muzhar (“Haj Bilal”) (No. 23), killed in Al-Qusayr (Youkal website, May 22, 2013). Middle: Mustafa Wahabi (No. 24), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Facebook page of the shaheed Muhammad Khalil Nasser al-Din, May 20, 2013). Right: Muhammad Ali Assad Bakri (No. 25), killed in Al-Qusayr (Facebook page of the liberators of Syria and the Gulf, May 19, 2013).

Left and Middle: The funeral held in the southern suburb of Beirut for Fadi Muhammad al-Jazar (“Abu Zaynab”) (No. 26), killed in Al-Qusayr (Town of Jibshit website, May 20, 2013). Right: The funeral held in Al-Kheraib, south Lebanon, for Ali Abbas Dahini (“Abu Ghaleb”) (No. 30), killed in Al-Qusayr (Yasour.org website, May 23, 2013).

Left: Ali Muhammad Faqi’ (No. 32), killed in Al-Qusayr (Facebook page of the martyrs of the Islamic resistance, May 26, 2013). Middle and Right: The funeral held in the town of Jibshit for Abd Issa (“Abu Ali”) (No. 35), killed in Al-Qusayr (Town of Jibshit website, May 22, 2013).

Left: Talal Qassem Jezini (“Abu Saleh”) (No. 36), killed in Al-Qusayr (Youkal website, May 22, 2013). Middle: Haj Ahmed Wa’el Ra’ad (No. 44), killed in Al-Qusayr (Facebook page of the Abu Bakr al-Sadiq Brigade, May 24, 2013). Right: Ahmed Kamel Khreis (“Abu Ali”) (No. 46), killed in Al-Qusayr (Youkal website, May 22, 2013)

Left: The funeral held in Kafr Hata for Ashraf Hassan Iyad (No. 47), killed in Al-Qusayr (Bint Jbeil website, May 22, 2013). Middle: Ali Qassem al-Atar (No. 48), killed in Al-Qusayr (Alkhabarpress website, May 21, 2013). Right: Haj Radwan Qassem al-Atar No. 49), killed in Al-Qusayr (Alkhabarpress website, May 21, 2013).

Left: Hatem Hussein (No.50), killed in Al-Qusayr, (Yasour.org website, May 19, 2013). Middle: Abbas Muhammad Uthman (No. 57), killed in Al-Qusayr (Facebook page of the Islamic resistance, May 19, 2013). Right: Muhammad Salman al-Khalil (No. 58), killed in Al-Qusayr (Facebook page of the shaheed Muhammad Khalil Nasser al-Din, May 20, 2013).

Left: Muhammad Fuad Rabah (No. 59), killed in Al-Qusayr Facebook pages of the Islamic resistance, may 19, 2013). Right: Hassan Feisal Shaker (No. 60), killed in Al-Qusayr (Facebook page of We are all the Free Dr. Bab al-Amru Muhammad Muhammad, May 20, 2013)^[41]

Left and Middle: The funeral held in Nabatieh for Hassan Ali Milham Shahrour (No. 61), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Facebook page of the residents of south Lebanon, May 18, 2013). Right: Ali Rafat Alaa’ al-Din (“Zayin al-Abdin”) (No. 62), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Facebook page of the residents of south Lebanon, May 11, 2013).

Left and Middle: The funeral held in the village of Beit Lif for Ahmed Muhammad Badah (No. 63), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Sawt el-Farah Radio, Tyre, May 10, 2013). Right: Hussein al-Haj Abd al-Munem Jaradi (No. 64), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Facebook page of the residents of south Lebanon, May 7, 2013).

Left: The funeral held in the town of Jibshit for Hassan Mahmoud Nasr al-Din (No. 65), killed while engaged in jihad (Town of Jibshit website, May 4, 2013). Middle: The funeral held in Baalbek, Beqa’a Valley for Mahdi al-Rafai’ (No. 66), killed while engaged in jihad (Website of the Islamic resistance in Lebanon, May 4, 2013). Right: Hussein Abd al-Latif Munis (No. 67), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Bint Jbeil website, May 2, 2013).

Left: Ahed Muhammad Sa’ada (“Abu Ra’ed”) (No. 68), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Bint Jbeil website, May 2, 2013). Middle: The funeral held in Beirut for Ali Hussein Sa’ad (“Kazem”) (No. 70), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Al-Ahed, April 30, 2013). Right: Mahdi al-Musawi (No. 71), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Town of Jibshit website, April 30, 2013).

Left: Haidar Muhammad Ayoub (“Sajed”) (No. 72), killed in a firefight with the free Syrian army (Bint Jbeil website, April 27, 2013). Middle left: Hussein Hassan Barakat (No. 73), killed in an exchange of fire with the free Syrian army (Bint Jbeil website, April 27, 2013). Middle right and Right: The funeral held in the village of Bafliye’ for Muhammad Jawad Nasif al-Zin (No. 74), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Al-Zrariehwebsite, Al-Wadi forum, April 23, 2013).

Left: The funeral held in Nabatieh for Haidar Ahmed al-Haj Ali (No. 75), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Alhadathnews.net webiste, April 16, 2013). Middle: Muhammad Assad Ali (No. 76), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab, (Forum of the shaheeds killed in the battle at the grave of Al-Set Zaynab, April 16, 2013). Right: The funeral held in the village of Dweir for Ibrahim Jawdat Qansu (No. 77), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Yasour.org website, May 16, 2013).

Left: The funeral held in the village of Nabatieh for Hussein al-Juni (No. 78), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Jaber Bulushi forum, April 16, 2013). Middle left: Abbas Rihan (No. 79), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Forum of the shaheeds killed in the battle at the grave of Al-Set Zaynab, April 16, 2013). Middle right and Right: The funeral held in Al-Ghbeireh for Hamzeh Ibrahim Ghamloush (No. 81), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Alhadathnews.org website, April 8, 2013).

Left: Muhammad Khalil Nasser al-Din (No. 82), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Facebook page of shaheed Muhammad Khalil Nasser al-Din, May 20, 2013). Middle and Right: The funeral held in the village of Koutariyet al-Said for Mahdi Nazi’ Abbas (No. 83), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Facebook page of the admirers of Hassan Nasrallah, April 3, 2013).

Left and Middle left: The funeral held in the village of Jouaiya for Haj Ali Jamal Jishi (“Haidar”) (No. 84), killed defending the grave of Sukaina (Facebook page of the residents of south Lebanon, April 3, 2013; Sawt el-Farah Radio, Tyre, April 6, 2013). Middle right and Right: The funeral held in the village of Meiss al-Jabal for Hassan Nimr Shartouni (No. 85), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (SOURIB website, March 18, 2013).

Left: Hussein Haitham al-Budani] (No. 86), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Syrianarmyfree forum website, May 4, 2013). Middle left: Haidar Muhammad Sufan (No. 87), killed while engaged in jihad (Town of Jibshit website, February 18, 2013). Middle right and Right: The funeral held in Arab Salim for Hussein Muhammad Munzer (No. 88), killed while engaged in jihad (Bint Jbeil website, February 3, 2013).

Left: The funeral held in the village of Hzarta for Abbas Ahmed Ahmed (No. 90), killed while engaged in jihad (Shafaqna website, November 26, 2012). Middle and Right: The funeral held in Nabatieh for Haidar Mahmoud Zin al-Din (No. 91), killed while engaged in jihad (Al-Manar, Lebanon, November 1, 2012, MTV, the Middle East, November 2, 2012).

Left: The funeral held in the village of Younine for Ahmed Mahdi Yassin (No. 92), killed while engaged in jihad (Al-Manar, Lebanon, November 1, 2012). Middle: Hussein Abd al-Ghani Nimr (No. 93), killed in Al-Qusayr (Bint Jbeil website, October 8, 2012). Right: The funeral held in the town of Buday for Ali Hussein Nasif (“Abu Abbas”) (No. 94), killed in Al-Qusayr (Al-Arabiya TV, October 3, 2012).

Left: Musa Ali Sh’haimi (No. 95), killed defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab (Facebook page of the shaheed Musa Sh’haimi, May 5, 2013). Right: Hassan Ali Samaha (“Karar”) (No. 96), killed while engaged in jihad (Blog of the town of Karak, September 16, 2011.

Notes:

[36] The Hezbollah ground commander (nicknamed Abu Mustafa) told an Al-Ra’i correspondent that Hezbollah had lost 50 fighters in the battles in Al-Qusayr beginning on May 19 (Al-Ra’i, May 22, 2013). On May 24 BBC Radio, relying on Syrian opposition sources, reported that there had been more than 70 deaths at Al-Qusayr. A similar number was mentioned by the Lebanese daily newspaper Al-Mustaqbal, which published a list of 74 names of Hezbollah operatives who had been killed, most of them in the battles at Al-Qusayr which began on the morning of May 19, 2013 (Al-Mustaqbal, May 25, 2013). By the end of the takeover of Al-Qusayr, several dozen deaths could be added to the above numbers.

[37] The table is updated to May 22, 2013. In our assessment, names of several dozen Hezbollah operatives who died is Syria may be added.

[38] Question marks indicate Hezbollah operatives who died in the attack on Al-Qusayr which began on May 19, 2013. According to Islam in general and Shi’a in particular, anyone who dies must be buried as soon as possible (similar to Judaism). The assumption of this study is that there is generally a gap of 24 hours between the date of death and the date issued for the death of an operative who was killed and/or his funeral. There may be discrepancies of one or two days between the date of the death was announced and the date of the funeral.

^[39] The grave of Sayyida Sukaina is the third most important Shiite site in Syria. It is located in the city of Daraya in the Damascus district. Sukaina was the daughter of the Imam Hussein, the son of Ali Ibn Abu Taleb. In recent months there were fierce battles between rebel forces and those of the Assad regime. The site was damaged during the recent events, especially the dome, which incurred severe damage.

[40] The numbers in parentheses refer to the operative’s number in the table.

[41] Bab Amru is a neighborhood in the Syrian city of Homs.